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sherry2018love Posted: 11-08-2018 6:10 PM

Though J.D. Martinez generated exemplary walk-year production in 2017, his mega deal eludes him even with spring training le s than five weeks away.Martinez has the right man behind him in Scott Boras, but even the super-agent seems to be having a difficult time persuading clubs that its wise to heavily invest in a player destined to be or at least should be Carlton Fisk Jersey a full-time designated hitter. Boras does not sweat securing significant deals when facing a dwindling timeframe because he has experienced immense succe s in similar circumstances with numerous high-level free agents.MORE: Ranking the top 101 MLB free agents for 2018The delay is not about the slog of the current free-agent market. Rather, teams are having a difficult time reconciling the 30-year-old Martinezs financial value when all his production comes in the batters box. Martinez hit free agency older than some, and while hes considered one of the best hitters in the game, his fielding ability is extremely limited, adding another risky component to the equation. Even if a club wants a strict DH, guaranteeing a salary approaching Martinezs reported seven-year, $210 million asking price or a shorter term deal that maintains a $30 million average annual value is ludicrous.The Red Sox, who could use Martinezs thump (45 home runs and 166 OPS+ in 2017), are reportedly the lone suitor. Bostons proposal is said to be for five years, so it becomes Boras responsibility to drag a competitor into the mix. Boston will not bid against itself, therefore if the value or Yolmer Sanchez Jersey length of their proposal is to increase, another club will have to enter the fray. Unfortunately, this is not a pool in which many teams want to swim, despite Martinez offensive prowe s (career 130 OPS+).We created a basic model to demonstrate the cavern between Martinezs asking price and the analytical market for his services. To determine a starting point, we averaged Martinezs WAR measures per FanGraphs acro s the past three seasons, arriving at 3.5 WAR for 2018. Second, we a sume 5 percent inflation year over year to determine the worth of 1.0 WAR following the initial $9.0 million value. Lastly, the age-curve begins to decrease a players speculated WAR by 0.5 on an annual basis beginning at the age-31 season.SeasonAgeValue of 1.0 WAR in millionsEstimated WARPerformance Value in Millions201830$9.003.5$31.50201931$9.453$28.35202032$9.922.5$24.81202133$10.422$20.84202234$10.941.5$16.41202335$11.491$11.49202436$12.060.5$6.03Total14.0$139.42The model shows Martinez would fall well short of producing enough on-field value to match a seven-year, $210 million deal. Even Bostons five-year proposal should not go beyond $121.91 million if the club expects to stick to a theoretical breakeven point. This disparity is also a critical problem for Martinez if he hopes to minimally obtain a $30 million average annual value over a five-year contract. In fact, we see that a one-year deal is the only one that would cover such an average annual value, though his two-year performance value comes close.MORE: Why a bidding war for Eric Hosmer makes no senseOur first model grants Martinez Bo Jackson 1993 Collection Practice Black Jersey the benefit of the doubt by using the WAR average of his past three seasons versus statistical projection models such as FanGraphs Depth Charts (derived from Steamers and ZiPS 2018 projections). Depth Charts has Martinez manufacturing 2.7 fWAR in 2018. If we use that value as a starting point, it severely lowers Martinezs overall performance value as shown in our second model below.SeasonAgeValue of 1.0 WAR in millionsEstimated WARPerformance Value in Millions201830$9.002.7$24.30201931$9.452.2$20.79202032$9.921.7$16.87202133$10.421.2$12.50202234$10.940.7$7.66202335$11.490.2$2.30202436$12.06-0.3-$3.62Total8.4$80.80This pe simistic scenario has Martinez contributing negative WAR in his final season, and thus a lower overall value than a five-year deal would generate.While neither of these projections reflects Martinez in a great light compared with his initial asking price, there is a solid agreement to be made. Knowing that there is a five-year deal on the table and that the length will not decrease, Boston, or whichever club inks Martinez, must determine their upper limit in terms of average annual Avisail Garcia Jersey value.STELLINI: Owners willing to freeze out free agents to pocket more moneyBy selecting a dollar amount at the approximate midpoint of performance value between the two models five-year mark, the wisest five-year offer will be in the $100 million range. From the clubs perspective, if it believes in the higher performance value in Model 1, the team stands to gain a financial advantage by signing Martinez at $100 million. Further, the club would have room to increase its proposal until Martinez is satisfied.However, if the club suspects the le s desirable outcomes in Model 2 are more realistic and still wants to sign Martinez, the team would end up agreeing to a deal understanding it will come up short of his potential Sox Big And Tall Cooperstown Jersey production value. As we know, this is often the cost of doing busine s in baseball, particularly in regard to nine-figure contracts.Martinez is going to be a rich man within the next few weeks. He may not sniff the mark set by his bombastic agent, but a nine-figure deal is likely in the cards. For a player profiling as a designated hitter quickly approaching the downside of his age curve, thats not too bad.

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